Blooket Chance Calculator
Pack odds, probability, thresholds and rate framings in one tool. Pick a Blook to see the packs you need for a 50%, 90% or 99% chance, or enter a custom drop rate to translate it into plain English.
Pick a Blook, backward direction
Which one are you chasing?
29 chase Blooks indexed, rarest first.
Chilly Chameleon
N = ln(1 − target) / ln(1 − p), using the published drop rate for Chilly Chameleon. With resell on, the net cost subtracts the average tokens you'd recover from duplicates. See the 50/90 rule section or the cumulative-probability section.By drop rate, rate translator and thresholds
What does this rate really mean?
Enter any drop rate or pick a preset. You'll get five human framings so the percent stops feeling abstract.
The raw per-pack chance. Every pack rolls the dice at this rate.
Long-run average: one pull per this many packs over thousands of trials. Not a guarantee on any given run.
The expected count across a 100-pack run, and your cumulative chance of seeing at least one.
Assuming you hit the 500-token daily cap (25 packs/day at this cost).
Token cost at 90%: 230,240
P(≥1) = 1 − (1 − p)^N on the back end. See the drop-rates guide for the full derivation, or switch to the Pick-a-Blook tab to use a specific Blook instead of a rate.Pack count → cumulative chance
Plug a planned run into one of the three flagship chases below. Each widget shows the cumulative chance after your pack count, the packs needed for 50% and 90% confidence, and links to the full chase calculator for that Blook.
Rainbow Panda chase calculator
Safari Pack · 0.02% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
King of Hearts chase calculator
Wonderland Pack · 0.30% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Mega Bot chase calculator
Bot Pack · 0.03% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Red Astronaut chase calculator
Space Pack · 0.05% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Megalodon chase calculator
Aquatic Pack · 0.20% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 12,500 tokens.
Tim the Alien chase calculator
Contest of Candy 2021 · 0.00% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 0 tokens.
Tropical Globe chase calculator
Blizzard Pack (retired) · 0.02% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 12,500 tokens.
50% / 90% / 99% packs for any drop rate
Enter any rate and the widget returns the packs and tokens you need to hit the three confidence benchmarks. Use the 99% column as a worst-case budget, not a target.
50 / 90 rule
What does a drop rate actually mean?
A percentage like 0.02% doesn't feel like anything until you translate it. The five standard framings, raw percent, 1-in-N odds, expected per 100 packs, days at the daily cap, and the 50/90/99% pack thresholds, turn any rate into something you can plan around. Switch to the By drop rate tab above to plug in a custom number; the table below shows the same framings for the most common Blooket rates.
The per-pack chance. Independent on every roll.
The long-run average. One pull per N packs across thousands of trials.
The average count and your cumulative chance of seeing at least one.
At a 500-token daily cap, days to hit your 50% and 90% targets.
The packs and tokens you'd need for each confidence level.
Multiplied by pack price so you see the budget, not just the count.
Three canonical rates, pre-computed.
A 0.3% rate doesn't mean “1 in 333 is the magic number.”
Expected value tells you how many drops to average across infinite packs. It says nothing about the chance of seeing your target. At 0.3%, 333 packs puts you at ~63%, not guaranteed, not the median. Even 990 packs (3× average) only gets you to ~95%. The full math walkthrough lives in drop rates explained, and if you want to see the variance shake out instead of just the formula, run a few hundred openings in the pack simulator. For an expected-value framing instead of cumulative chance, the pack odds calculator returns expected drops per N packs. This page is the probability entry point of the broader blooket calculator.
Full math walkthrough →Chance, probability, thresholds, framings.
What's the difference between a chance calculator and a probability calculator?
Same math, different inputs. A chance calculator (forward direction) takes pack count and returns the percent chance of pulling your target. A probability calculator (backward direction) takes a target chance, usually 50%, 90% or 99%, and returns the packs you need. This page does both: pick a Blook in the tab above for the backward direction, or use the threshold widget below for the forward direction.
How many packs do I need for a 50% chance?
Use n ≈ ln(0.5) / ln(1 − p), where p is the per-pack drop rate. For a 0.02% Chroma like Rainbow Panda that's ~3,465 packs; for a 0.3% Legendary like King of Hearts it's ~231 packs. The threshold widget on this page returns the exact pack count for any rate, plus the 90% and 99% benchmarks.
What does a 0.02% drop rate actually mean?
On its own, almost nothing, every pack rolls 0.02% independently of the last. In a 100-pack run you'd average 0.02 pulls and have a ~2% cumulative chance of seeing at least one. To hit 50% confidence you'd need ~3,465 packs. Switch to the By drop rate tab above to translate any rate into 1-in-N odds, expected pulls per 100, days at the daily cap, and 50/90/99% thresholds.
Is the calculator accurate?
The math is exact, 1 − (1 − p)ᴺ for cumulative chance, ln(1 − target) / ln(1 − p) for thresholds. Accuracy depends on the drop-rate dataset, which is community-sourced from the Blooket Wiki and refreshed when changes are reported. Real pack openings still involve variance: a 90% cumulative chance means 1 in 10 players still pulls zero.
Which pack has the best Chroma odds?
Ice Monster Pack leads with three Chromas combining for 0.15% per pack: Ice Slime at 0.08%, Frozen Fossil at 0.05%, and Ice Crab at 0.02%. Lunch Pack follows at 0.04% (Half a Sandwich). Outback, Pirate and Bug Packs are at 0.03%. Seasonal 100%-Chroma packs (Lovely, Lucky, Spring) guarantee a Chroma every open during their event windows.
What is the 50/90 rule?
It's shorthand for budgeting a chase: figure out the packs needed for a 50% chance (your coin-flip target) and the packs needed for 90% (your insurance budget). Most chase planning happens between those two numbers. The 99% column on this calculator is the bad-luck contingency, plan for it, hope you don't need it.
Does cumulative probability mean every pack increases my chance?
Your per-pack chance never changes, it's still p on every roll. What grows is your cumulative chance of seeing at least one across the whole run, because each pack adds another independent shot. That's why 100 packs at 1% gives ~63% chance, not 100%. The math doesn't care about streaks; the calculator shows the curve directly.
Is this calculator free?
Yes, no signup, no login, no data stored. Everything runs in your browser. Not affiliated with Blooket or Play Blooket, LLC.